BigShinyThing

1. As iPod sales start to slow down, we’re betting on a fierce brand-extension war between Apple and the other online music brands. Competitors have already started to emerge — see MTV’s tie up with Microsoft, Urge.
2. In the same sector, we tip Napster to learn from Google and Yahoo’s mapping successes, and to offer a programming interface (API) for subscribers, so people can build their own software systems using Napster content — expect customised jukeboxes, recommendation systems and music-based games to flourish online. The benefit to Napster? Kudos to the brand which accrue from others’ innovations, a wider audience, and increased advertising opportunities.
3. We’re waiting for a Friday night TV show which features real-time ’stupid shit’, news and interviews contributed live via 3G mobiles by amateur viewer/reporters out and about around the UK and worldwide — the trash culture flipside of OhMyNews. Expect flash celebrity for a few contributors to follow, and a big spike in phone sales.
4. Still on TV, we expect at least one channel to broadcast experimental blocks of ‘ad-free’ prime time programming to test the waters of post-interruptive-advertising television — probably initially sponsored by a major car brand.
5. Flyposting will be banned in London as Ken sides with the Government on a ‘respect‘ agenda.
6. Sophisticated services offered via Skype will be the surprise eCommerce success story of the year, with third-party developers exploiting the ubiquitous telephony provider’s APIs to provide simple, effective voice access to information, retail and search services in exactly the way that screen-based systems thus far haven’t, for the mobile multitudes.
7. Namecheck BST when territorial disputes over mining rights in polar regions recently exposed by global warning become a major news story, and a source of growing international tension.
8. And a big ‘we told you so’ if Interpol reveals that an unlikely counterfeiting alliance of criminals and ‘just because we could’ hackers has adopted open source development methodologies to make undetectable fakes of a major currency, which subsequently has to be completely withdrawn from circulation, redesigned and reissued.
9. Long odds but not impossible: Sony’s launch of non-Sony-branded hardware or media, in an attempt at a fresh start after the horrors of 2005.
10. We will be saddened but not surprised if a PC virus takes out one of the emergency services for at least a day.
11. 3G. Finally. Yes we’re surprised too.

Unsurprisingly, Standard & Poor’s ratings services’ outlook for the media and entertainment industry in 2006 in the US is rather pessimistic, with online advertising the only bright spot.

Bright yellow canaries for the UK market are as follows:

Broadcast and Cable Networks
S&P expects broadcast-network revenue to grow in line with, or slightly faster than, GDP in 2006. We see the effects of potentially ongoing auto ad spending weakness, competition from alternative media and sponsors’ cold feet over ad fast-forwarding as together balancing the benefits of elections and Olympics in that year …. Cable networks, as much as broadcast networks, will be subject to fears of ad zapping and persistent programming price pressures.

It’s unclear whether new technologies will represent genuine opportunities for either broadcast or cable networks. Advertising revenue streams will still be miniscule from transmission to mobile phones, video on demand (VOD), video iPod, and Internet efforts, and their long-term potential is uncertain. Some opportunity exists for secondary digital channels, such as the digital CBS channel expected in late 2006 or early 2007, and from broadband networks being launched by cable channels.

TV Station Groups
Total spot revenues are forecast to grow between 6% and 8% in 2006, according to the Television Bureau of Advertising (TVB). Factors that could influence growth in 2006 include the impact of oil prices on consumer spending, the strength of the automotive and political categories, the pressure from non traditional media, and advertisers’ call for enhanced measurement of effectiveness of their ad spending.

Radio Station Groups
Radio ad demand is under pressure from competing media such as the iPod and satellite radio as well as from excess commercial loads.

Online Advertising
S&P expects that online ad growth in 2006 will exceed 20%, reflecting the continued strength of both search and brand advertising. Marketers appear to be gaining confidence in the Internet’s ability to reach consumers. For example, Yahoo! indicated that its brand-marketing revenue from the top 200 US brand advertisers grew more than 45% in second quarter 2005 and Ford Motor has allocated about 15% of its marketing budget to online initiatives. Furthermore, some marketers have begun to incorporate search advertising as part of their overall branding campaigns, which could spur more online ad spending.

Even assuming that growth decelerates somewhat, Internet advertising is likely to exceed magazine advertising in 2006. Spending on Internet ads could potentially surpass spending on radio in 2008, assuming 1% to 2% growth in radio ad spending and a minimal contribution from satellite radio.

Advertising Agencies
Advertising spending is expected to grow 5% in 2006, slightly faster than the 4.7% that we expect for 2005. This will be mainly driven by the exceptional events of the election and Olympic ad spending.

Marketing services growth in 2006 will likely vary depending on the niche. Customer relationship management and Internet ad services are likely to experience more robust growth than other niches, such as recruitment and direct to consumer health care advertising. Increasing fragmentation of the media landscape should steadily increase the value of and revenue potential in media planning.

Via BusinessWeek.